Okun coefficients and participation coefficients by age and gender

Evans, Andrew

doi:10.1186/s40172-018-0065-8

Table 5 Estimation results of LOCL plus common cycle model

From: Okun coefficients and participation coefficients by age and gender

	Male						Female
		std.		Natural	95% Confid.			std.		Natural	95% Confid.
Param.	Coef.	err.	p val	coef.	Low	High	Coef.	err.	p val	coef.	Low	High
λ	−1.086	0.195	0.000	0.077	0.068	0.087	−1.983	0.420	0.000	0.059	0.051	0.075
period				81.950	72.087	92.393				105.646	83.437	123.269
ρ	3.005	0.475	0.000	0.989	0.976	0.994	3.140	0.660	0.000	0.990	0.970	0.996
\(\sigma _{\kappa }^{2}\)	−3.677	0.264	0.000	0.025	0.015	0.041	−3.604	0.301	0.000	0.026	0.015	0.047
\(\sigma _{\varepsilon u}^{2}\)	−5.005	0.280	0.000	0.007	0.004	0.012	−3.785	0.115	0.000	0.023	0.018	0.029
\(\sigma _{\tau u}^{2}\)	−4.232	0.228	0.000	0.015	0.009	0.023	−4.246	0.204	0.000	0.014	0.010	0.022
ω _u	−0.770	0.106	0.000	−0.770	−0.982	−0.557	−0.525	0.082	0.000	−0.525	−0.689	−0.360
\(\sigma _{\varepsilon p}^{2}\)	−4.074	0.099	0.000	0.017	0.014	0.021	−3.997	0.146	0.000	0.018	0.014	0.025
\(\sigma _{\tau p}^{2}\)	−4.643	0.178	0.000	0.010	0.007	0.014	−4.067	0.171	0.000	0.017	0.012	0.024
ω _p	0.176	0.044	0.000	0.176	0.088	0.265	0.344	0.069	0.000	0.344	0.206	0.482
\(\sigma _{\varepsilon g}^{2}\)
\(\sigma _{\tau g}^{2}\)	−2.070	0.123	0.000	0.126	0.099	0.161	−1.968	0.111	0.000	0.140	0.112	0.174
ω _g	1.000						1.000
\(\sigma _{\varepsilon h}^{2}\)	−1.891	0.093	0.000	0.151	0.125	0.182	−1.951	0.097	0.000	0.142	0.117	0.172
\(\sigma _{\tau h}^{2}\)	−2.993	0.273	0.000	0.050	0.029	0.087	−4.718	1.260	0.000	0.009	0.001	0.111
ω _h	1.428	0.193	0.000	1.428	1.042	1.813	1.939	0.270	0.000	1.939	1.400	2.479
γ _u12	−0.103	0.034	0.002	−0.103	−0.171	−0.035	−0.068	0.034	0.048	−0.068	−0.137	0.001
γ _u24	−0.051	0.033	0.123	−0.051	−0.116	0.015	−0.052	0.032	0.106	−0.052	−0.116	0.012
γ _p12	−0.035	0.032	0.279	−0.035	−0.100	0.030	−0.009	0.032	0.790	−0.009	−0.073	0.056
γ _p24	−0.091	0.028	0.001	−0.091	−0.148	−0.035	−0.038	0.033	0.250	−0.038	−0.105	0.028
γ _h12	−0.093	0.040	0.021	−0.093	−0.173	−0.013	−0.099	0.039	0.011	−0.099	−0.177	−0.021
γ _h24	−0.208	0.040	0.000	−0.208	−0.288	−0.128	−0.186	0.040	0.000	−0.186	−0.267	−0.106
γ _h3	0.068	0.033	0.038	0.068	0.003	0.133	0.079	0.031	0.011	0.079	0.017	0.142
γ _h5	0.078	0.032	0.015	0.078	0.014	0.143	0.078	0.034	0.021	0.078	0.010	0.145
γ _h13	−0.090	0.039	0.020	−0.090	−0.168	−0.013	−0.093	0.037	0.012	−0.093	−0.167	−0.019
γ _h25	−0.168	0.039	0.000	−0.168	−0.246	−0.091	−0.150	0.038	0.000	−0.150	−0.227	−0.073
r ε _up	1.901	0.523	0.000	0.740	0.404	0.900	2.114	0.305	0.000	0.785	0.637	0.877
log lik.			−412.44					−525.33
obs./partial			442	294				442	294
Convg. status			Convg. achieved					Convg. achieved
no. iterations			74					86
			u	p	g	h		u	p	g	h
Q(12) p val			0.017	0.266	0.976	0.056		0.841	0.269	0.807	0.053
Q(24) p val			0.136	0.736	1.000	0.113		0.857	0.124	0.997	0.158
Q(36) p val			0.322	0.850	1.000	0.191		0.895	0.191	1.000	0.323

Notes: The notation γ_u12 represents the coefficient of the seasonal adjustment factor created using the first difference of u_t lagged 12 months, with corresponding notation for other components and lag lengths. The confidence intervals for parameter estimates shown in natural terms are approximate only

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