Table 11 Coefficients of state-by-state regression of UI- based unemployment rates on BLS state unemployment rates

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

DC

FL

UI based

2.515**

0.152

1.658***

1.310**

1.593***

1.550***

1.078***

0.751***

2.761***

1.507***

Unemp. R

[0.759]

[0.234]

[0.192]

[0.347]

[0.160]

[0.380]

[0.134]

[0.134]

[0.303]

[0.254]

Constant

−1.997

8.090***

2.948***

1.603

1.367*

2.635**

2.833***

5.202***

−0.187

3.911***

[3.124]

[1.896]

[0.562]

[1.528]

[0.666]

[0.840]

[0.478]

[0.442]

[0.950]

[0.616]

R-squared

0.687

0.078

0.937

0.740

0.952

0.768

0.929

0.863

0.943

0.876

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

UI based

1.692***

1.719***

0.891***

1.588**

1.827***

1.611**

1.346***

1.862***

1.013

0.883***

Unemp. R

[0.185]

[0.414]

[0.163]

[0.590]

[0.265]

[0.472]

[0.087]

[0.347]

[0.587]

[0.189]

Constant

2.216***

0.686

2.447**

0.542

2.469**

0.628

0.936***

−1.007

4.331*

3.400**

[0.491]

[1.423]

[0.783]

[2.637]

[0.846]

[1.421]

[0.225]

[1.533]

[1.858]

[0.895]

R-squared

0.944

0.775

0.857

0.591

0.905

0.700

0.979

0.852

0.373

0.813

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

UI based

0.930**

1.717***

1.421**

1.603***

1.357***

2.188***

1.336**

1.407**

1.551***

1.819***

Unemp. R

[0.288]

[0.184]

[0.424]

[0.198]

[0.259]

[0.461]

[0.425]

[0.503]

[0.251]

[0.285]

Constant

3.652**

0.57

2.12

0.965

2.981**

−1.441

0.587

0.975

1.622

1.259

[0.936]

[0.711]

[2.571]

[0.592]

[0.974]

[1.696]

[1.817]

[1.018]

[0.917]

[0.641]

R-squared

0.676

0.946

0.692

0.929

0.846

0.819

0.665

0.610

0.884

0.891

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

UI based

1.635***

1.148***

1.241***

1.488***

0.738

1.583***

1.352***

1.320***

1.199**

1.445

Unemp. R

[0.268]

[0.196]

[0.224]

[0.196]

[0.606]

[0.291]

[0.188]

[0.115]

[0.403]

[0.724]

Constant

0.295

4.171***

3.146**

1.986**

2.222

2.186

1.868***

1.791**

1.891

−0.371

[1.313]

[0.607]

[0.944]

[0.600]

[1.946]

[1.148]

[0.401]

[0.604]

[2.136]

[3.987]

R-squared

0.881

0.873

0.860

0.920

0.229

0.855

0.912

0.963

0.639

0.443

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

UI based

1.409***

0.973

2.005**

2.306***

1.513***

1.171***

0.456

0.882**

2.288***

1.581***

1.181***

Unemp. R

[0.172]

[1.348]

[0.715]

[0.410]

[0.332]

[0.093]

[0.319]

[0.301]

[0.147]

[0.261]

[0.161]

Constant

2.424**

2.098

0.01

2.171**

1.153

1.284**

4.243***

4.094**

−2.750**

0.036

1.810***

[0.607]

[2.777]

[2.733]

[0.587]

[1.054]

[0.420]

[1.043]

[1.578]

[0.760]

[1.104]

[0.314]

R-squared

0.931

0.094

0.612

0.863

0.806

0.970

0.290

0.633

0.980

0.880

0.915