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Table 7 Complementary analysis on the effect of state unemployment rate on childlessness. Linear probability models (ACS)

From: The causal effect of the great recession on childlessness of white American women

 

37-39 year old women

 

Model

Model

Model

Model

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Mean-cent. State Unemployment rate (lagged)a

−0.001

−0.001

−0.002*

−0.002***

(−0.003 - 0.000)

(−0.003 - 0.000)

(−0.003 - 0.000)

(−0.004 - -0.001)

Educationb

    

Completed Highschool

 

−0.004

−0.021***

0.016***

  

(−0.010 - 0.001)

(−0.026 - -0.015)

(0.011 - 0.020)

Some college but no degree

 

−0.024***

−0.043***

0.002

  

(−0.029 - -0.018)

(−0.049 - -0.038)

(−0.003 - 0.007)

Associate’s degree

 

−0.029***

−0.053***

0.005*

  

(−0.035 - -0.023)

(−0.059 - -0.047)

(−0.000 - 0.011)

Bachelor’s degree

 

0.006**

−0.014***

0.046***

  

(0.000 - 0.011)

(−0.019 - -0.008)

(0.041 - 0.051)

Master’s degree or higher

 

0.038***

0.011***

0.069***

  

(0.032 - 0.044)

(0.005 - 0.017)

(0.064 - 0.075)

Employment statusc

    

Unemployed

  

0.030***

−0.002

   

(0.024 - 0.037)

(−0.009 - 0.004)

Not in labor force

  

−0.101***

−0.052***

   

(−0.104 - -0.098)

(−0.055 - -0.050)

Marital statusd

    

Married, spouse absent

   

0.334***

    

(0.321 - 0.346)

Separated

   

0.126***

    

(0.118 - 0.133)

Divorced

   

0.228***

    

(0.224 - 0.232)

Widowed

   

0.167***

    

(0.151 - 0.182)

Never married/single

   

0.620***

    

(0.616 - 0.624)

Year Fixed Effecte

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

State Fixed Effectf

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Constant

0.212***

0.215***

0.258***

0.113***

 

(0.200 - 0.223)

(0.203 - 0.227)

(0.246 - 0.271)

(0.102 - 0.125)

N

437637

435697

435697

435697

  1. Source: Elaboration of the author based on ACS data
  2. aMean state unemployment rate in the period 2000–2012 is 6.36%
  3. bReference category is Less than High school
  4. cReference category is being employed
  5. dReference category is Married with spouse present
  6. eYears available are 2000–2012, the reference year is 2010
  7. fReference state is Alabama
  8. *p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001. Robust Confidence intervals in parenthesis. The analysis on different age groups and varying the bandwidth yield very similar results and are available in the Appendix