Retirement intentions in the presence of technological change: theory and evidence from France

Table 7 Estimates of the intended retirement age by occupation, with technical change at the industry-occupation level

	Managers		Other occupations
Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Aggregated variables for workers aged 24-49 years
Average probability of skill updating (T₁)	-0.732	-0.625	-0.034	-0.562
	(1.125)	(0.920)	(0.758)	(0.639)
Average probability of a technical change (T₂)	-2.951	-3.250**	-1.048***	-1.204***
	(1.963)	(1.618)	(0.254)	(0.255)
Interaction term (T₁∗T₂)	7.643*	8.961***	0.904	2.085
	(4.466)	(3.680)	(1.612)	(1.392)
Control variables	YES	YES	YES	YES
Occupation fixed effects	NO	NO	NO	NO
Industry fixed effects	NO	NO	NO	NO
Observations	224	224	935	935
Log pseudolikelihood	-183.59		-782.91
Pseudo R²	0.0993	0.225	0.124	0.255

Note: (1) and (3) are estimates from ordered Probit model, the dependent variable being equal to 1 when the respondent intends to leave the labor market before 60, 2 when his intended exit age ranges from 60 to 64, and 3 if he intends to leave the labor market at 65 or after. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the industry-occupation level, significance levels being 1% (***), 5% (**) and 10% (*). (2) and (4) are estimates from an OLS regression on the latent outcome associated with retirement intention. The latent variable has been obtained using simulated residuals. The other control variables are those used in the regressions reported in Table 5.
Source: COI (2006)/INSEE-DARES-CEE, TWR survey (2006), French Labour Force Survey 2006.