Affirmative action and university fit: evidence from Proposition 209

Table 9 Decomposing the effect of Prop 209 on minority graduation rates

	Model Specification:
	Baseline		(1)		(2)		(3)		(4)
	Level	Share of Total	Level	Share of Total	Level	Share of Total	Level	Share of Total	Level	Share of Total
(A) Improved Matching	0.13	3.0%	0.64	14.7%	0.69	15.8%	1.20	27.7%	0.77	17.8%
Upper Bound on Behavioral Response
(B) Behavioral Response	3.06	70.5%	2.91	67.0%	2.92	67.1%	2.21	50.8%	2.80	64.4%
(C) Selection	1.15	26.6%	0.79	18.2%	0.74	17.1%	0.93	21.5%	0.77	17.8%
Lower Bound on Behavioral Response
(B’) Behavioral Response			1.44	33.2%	1.33	30.7%	0.43	9.8%	1.01	23.3%
(C’) Selection			2.26	52.1%	2.33	53.5%	2.72	62.5%	2.56	58.9%

Specifications as listed in Table 5.
Selection effect calculated as Total Increase -(A)-(B).
For results dropping bottom of PRE admit distribution, baseline not reported because there is no DK distribution from admission variables.