Figure 3

Marginal effect of technical change on the propensity of older workers to delay their retirement decision. Lecture: The latent outcome associated to the ordered intended retirement age (with three categories) is obtained by the methodology of simulated residuals. The lower horizontal dash-dotted line represents the threshold value of the latent outcome below which the respondents intend to leave their job before 60. This value is μ₁=9.91. The upper horizontal dash-dotted line represents the threshold value of the latent outcome value of the latent outcome above which respondents intend to leave their job at 65 or after. This value is μ₂=11.73. Both thresholds are those from the ordered Probit regressions explaining intended retirement age, whose estimates are used when applying the method of simulated residuals. The dashed decreasing line represents the latent outcome as a function of the average probability of technical change, computed at the industry-occupation level, in the case where the average training rate computed at the industry-occupation level among the workers aged 24-49 years old, is set to 0. The solid increasing line stands for the latent outcome as a function of the average probability of technical change in the case where the average training rate is set to 1.